Friends. Family. Turkey.
Thanksgiving is a time for people to come together in celebration and happiness. That is, unless you’re an NHL team sitting outside of the playoffs — then it’s time for panic.
As countless articles like this one have made us aware, American Thanksgiving is when organizations are evaluated across the hockey world. Since the 2005 NHL lockout, 76.7% of teams in a playoff spot on this date have gone on to make it into the tournament.
Last season is a prime example of this. Of the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason, only three were on the outside looking in at this point: The Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, and Minnesota Wild. All of them were within one point of a wild card spot at the time.
Today, we’ll look at six of the most interesting teams outside the playoff picture to examine their odds of beating the odds.
Philadelphia Flyers:
Current Record: 10 – 8 – 1 | 21 points
Position: 9th in Eastern Conference
Distance from Wild Card: 0 points
The Philadelphia Flyers are somehow tied for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference after missing the playoffs by 17 points last season.
And it looks … sustainable?
I’m going to be honest, I came into this expecting to see Philadelphia on a PDO bender, but that isn’t the case. They don’t have an absurdly high shooting or save percentage, they’re controlling over half of all shot attempts, and their actual goals roughly match their expected goals.
It seems John Tortorella has this team firing on all cylinders (although having a healthy Sean Couturier back definitely helps).
Despite all that — I still don’t see them making the playoffs this year.
While the analytics don’t give me any reason to believe this team will get worse, they also don’t give me any reason to believe they will get better, either. They seem destined to be a middle-of-the-road club, and it remains to be seen if that’s good enough to sneak into the postseason.
With underperforming teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, New Jersey Devils, and even Ottawa Senators behind them and just a click away from breaking out, the odds tilt away from their favor, in my opinion.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Flyers in the playoffs. But as of right now, I’m taking the bet against them.
Do they beat the odds?: No
Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Record: 9 – 9 – 0 | 18 points
Position: 11th in Eastern Conference
Distance from Wild Card: 3 points
The Pittsburgh Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in 17 years last season — falling just one point short after a loss to the Chicago Blackhawks in the final week.
And their reaction was quick.
Within 24 hours, they fired general manager Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke. In to replace them was Kyle Dubas, the former general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Dubas made an impact immediately, bringing Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson into the fold and shipping out bad contracts in the process to put his team back into contention.
Right now, however, they sit just outside the final wild card spot.
One positive is that their top players are performing like top players. Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin, and the previously mentioned Karlsson all sit around or above a point-per-game pace. Meanwhile, goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic are both playing well above average.
But there are some concerns.
Despite the production from their best players, their power play is only clicking at 13.7%. That ranks in the bottom third of the league and is far below expectations for a team with so much top-tier talent.
Then there’s the even more prevalent issue of depth. Their top five scoring forwards have combined for 42 goals. The rest: Just nine.
You need players who can score up and down your lineup to make the playoffs, and right now, the Penguins don’t have that.
But even with all the uncertainties with the team, there is a realistic scenario where they sneak into the postseason.
The club has a positive goal differential (albeit helped by a 10 – 2 win against the San Jose Sharks), which leads all teams outside of the playoff picture. And once the power play gets going — which it almost certainly will with all the elite scorers and playmakers on their roster — they’re going to see more games fall in their favor.
That should be enough to push them over the edge.
Do they beat the odds?: Yes | Team knocked out: Washington Capitals
Anaheim Ducks
Current Record: 9 – 10 – 0 | 18 points
Position: 9th in Western Conference
Distance from Wild Card: 3 points
This was the worst team in the NHL last year.
Worse than the Chicago Blackhawks. Worse than the Columbus Blue Jackets. Worse than the San Jose Sharks.
Yet here they are.
And while it’s impressive to see them in the running for a playoff spot, how they’re doing it is a little less so.
Five of their nine wins have only been by one goal. Three of them have come in overtime. And in the process, they’re being out-chanced, out-shot, and out-possessed.
There’s also the alarming lack of production from Trevor Zegras, who has just two points in 12 games after being a contract holdout during training camp.
That’s not to say there haven’t been bright spots for this team.
Mason McTavish is playing at over a point-per-game pace at just 21 years old. Frank Vatrano is following suit with a point-per-game season of his own (although both have relatively unsustainable shooting percentages).
And John Gibson, despite his losing record, has a .921 save percentage.
Couple all that with the performance of rookie Leo Carlsson, and there’s a lot to be happy about.
But ultimately, I think the lows outweigh the highs on this team. Their time will come, but it’s not now.
Do they beat the odds?: No
New Jersey Devils
Current Record: 8 – 8 – 1 | 17 points
Position: 14th in Eastern Conference
Distance from Wild Card: 4 points
The New Jersey Devils came out of nowhere last season, nearly doubling their point total from the year before to qualify for the playoffs. And although they seemed like a lock to do it again this year, they currently sit near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
But don’t let their position in the standings fool you, this team is still very good.
They’re fifth in 5v5 expected goals share at 53.9% and seventh in 5v5 high-danger corsi for at 58.5%. Plus, both Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes are among the top-15 players in points per game.
The issue is goaltending. After 17 games, neither Vitek Vanecek nor Akira Schmid have a save percentage above .890. Only the Edmonton Oilers have seen a worse goaltending performance — which we’ll get to later.
Vanecek’s lowest season save percentage was a .908 in his rookie year with the Washington Capitals, so this would be quite the dropoff — although we have seen his play fall to this level in the postseason, including last year, when he had an .825 in a small sample size of four starts.
They’ve also had issues in the injury department.
J. Hughes, a current Hart Trophy candidate, missed five games with an upper-body injury. Captain Nico Hischier has missed nine games so far after receiving an illegal check to the head. And Timo Meier is currently listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
That’s three of their top five point-getters from last year missing time within the first quarter of the season.
So can the Devils stay healthy? And can their goaltending bounce back to NHL average?
Only time will tell, but I’m optimistic.
Neither Meier nor Hischier have an extensive injury history, and J. Hughes scored a goal in his return to the team. That’s a good sign he’s feeling okay. My guess is this young group will be fine on the injury front moving forward.
As for the goaltending, I don’t see a world where Vanecek continues to play at a sub-.900 level after performing above the NHL average for the first three years of his career. That fall from grace would be a big surprise, considering the team around him has only gotten better since last season.
Do they beat the odds?: Yes | Team knocked out: Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Current Record: 5 – 12 – 1 | 11 points
Position: 14th in Western Conference
Distance from Wild Card: 10 points
Oh boy.
The Edmonton Oilers are, well, not in a great position right now. They’ve already fired their head coach. Their starting goaltender has been demoted to the minors. And despite having two of the best players in the world, they sit only four points above the bottom of the standings.
Honestly, they might have a better chance at landing Macklin Celebrini than making the postseason at this point.
So, where do we begin?
Well, as much negative press as there’s been around the team, they’re actually carrying play at an elite level. In fact, they’re performing better than the aforementioned Devils in the analytics department.
They’re second in 5v5 corsi-for percentage (56.2%), second in 5v5 expected-goals-for percentage (56.0%), and seventh in 5v5 scoring-chances-for percentage (54.6%).
But the finish just isn’t there.
The Oilers have the fourth-worst shooting percentage in the league at just 8.80%, ahead of only the San Jose Sharks, New York Islanders, and the Calgary Flames. At 5v5, that number drops to 6.59%.
So, despite their dominance in possession and scoring chances, they’re not getting the results they need from it. The outcome is a team — which has both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on its roster — that ranks 27th in total goals scored.
That’s unacceptable, no matter how much you’re outplaying your opponents.
And then there’s the goaltending. Or lack thereof.
Here are the stats for the three netminders who have played for the Oilers this season:
Stuart Skinner: .865 SV% | 3.66 GAA
Jack Campbell: .873 SV% | 4.50 GAA
Calvin Pickard: .891 SV% | 2.94 GAA
It appears they have zero in-house options when it comes to finding consistent quality starts, and it’s the biggest reason why they’ve given up the second most goals in the NHL.
Last year, it took 95 points to sneak into the playoffs. If that were the case this season, the Oilers would need to play at a 108-point pace the rest of the year to qualify.
To put that into perspective, Edmonton has only earned over 108 points once since the Wayne Gretzky trade. The good news is it was last year.
While I don’t think the Oilers are this bad, especially when it comes to converting on chances, I think the hole they’ve dug is too big for them to climb out of — especially with no answer in site for goaltending.
It looks like this may be yet another year wasted on McDavid and Draisaitl’s contracts — and careers.
Do they beat the odds?: No
San Jose Sharks
Current Record: 3 – 15 – 1 | 7 points
Position: 16th in Western Conference
Distance from Wild Card: Too many points
Yeah, I don’t think so.
Do they beat the odds?: Not a chance
*Statistics from Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick
Pucks Over Glass 
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